Dan The Weather Man: Talking Climate and Weather

          Last week, the arrival of a powerful, complex storm system into the Midwest and deep south created a widespread 3-day outbreak, with anticipation building that Saturday (March 15) would be the not so pleasant blockbuster day.  A rare "High Risk" severe weather category was issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), indicating the usually high confidence in a large, devastating outbreak of severe weather. Unfortunately, many strong and fatal tornadoes occurred both during the evening on Friday and on Saturday, with well more than 150 tornado reports across the midwest and deep south. While the event was certainly impactful and many lives were lost, the forecasted environmental parameters suggested something even worse.  SPC Filtered Storm Reports for March 15. Particularly hardest hit was a corridor from southern Mississippi to west-central/central Alabama south of Birmingham           Before going any furt...

Time to Make Dorothy Fly...      Get Dorothy ready, she's going to be flying this week as the Midwest, Southeast, and East Coast prepare for a multi-day severe weather outbreak this weekend. Several tornadoes possible, including a few strong ones possibly on Saturday with widespread damaging winds in excess of 70 mph and large hail expected. A powerful surface low in association with a mid-level shortwave tough will provide the initial setup, followed by another mid-upper level trough leading to a secondary surface low development in the southeast on Saturday, giving rise to a multi-day and multi-state outbreak. Here's how we expect things to shake out as it stands now.  SPC Day 2 Categorical Risk. A "Moderate Risk" (Level 4/5) was issued for portions of Illinois, Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky for widespread damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes SPC Day 3 Categorical Risk. A "Moderate Risk" was also issued for portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisian...

          Seems like severe weather season has awakened as Central Virginia is expected to see its first significant round of severe weather tomorrow afternoon. A very powerful storm system will sweep east tomorrow, bringing the chance for some damaging winds and a few tornadoes . The Storm Prediction Center has most of Virginia in a level (2/5) "Slight" risk area while the Tri-cities and points south are in an elevated "Enhanced" Risk area (level 3/5). Peak timing for metro RVA looks to be anytime between Noon and 2 PM .  SPC Day 2 Categorical Risk. Most of Virginia is outlined in a "Slight" risk while southern Virginia is outlined in an "Enhanced" risk area.          As of this evening, a very powerful mid and upper level trough with a deepening surface low pressure is centered over the midwest, bringing strong winds and isolated tornadoes. This low pressure system will deepen some more tonight and track near the Great L...

March Has Something To Say... It would appear that March has some pent up energy as she looks to unleash her fury in the form of a "mega" trough to kick of severe weather season in 2025. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted the South and the Mid-Atlantic region for the possibility of some widespread severe weather on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. For us here in Virginia, we will be watching closely during the day on Wednesday for the passage of the strong cold front and the possibility of some damaging wind gusts. While still several days out and subject to change, it sure looks like a very large, powerful and widespread storm system will be swinging across the US on Tuesday and Wednesday. So what is a "mega" trough and why are models hinting at a major storm impacting a large part of the U.S.?  SPC Day 4 Categorical Risk. An "Enhanced" 30% Risk Area was introduced for portions of AR, LA, MS, and TN SPC Day 5 Categorical Risk. A 15% "S...